The market traded on low volumes and lack of noticeable news today. Uncertainty and the combination of month end, quarter end and year end explain why many traders were not active.
Russian level of export duties are still unknown, the Russian National Association of Exporters of Agricultural Products (NAESP) asked the government to postpone any export duties until March 2015. In the meantime specialists issued cold weather forecasts next week in the Plains and Midwest. After two days of negative trading, wheat traders decided to buy wheat and put an end to the previous price correction. Funds are reported to be long around 23,000 Chicago contracts, and the rest of the market seems to be long too.
After trading up following corn and wheat in the early in the session, Soybeans futures closed at or near unchanged in the first three expiries. Weather in South America is limiting any upside at the moment. Talk suggest China has covered 100% of its soybean needs for January and 50% for February.Funds are reported to be long 63,000 Chicago soybean contracts.
Corn futures prices were firmer today even though March 15 failed to stay above the $4,15 key level. The cash markets is in selling mode and is offsetting the speculative buying activity. Technical traders are now looking for the price to break the $4.15 and trade to next level of $4.50. On the options space, flows are showing stop-losses on bearish trades. Funds are currently long around 230,000 Chicago corn contracts.
The next Weekly US export sales report will be published on Monday at 7.30 am Chicago time.
Today funds are reported to be neutral soybeans and to have bought 3,000 corn contracts, 4,000 wheat contracts. Reuters-owned agency Lanworth published its world crop estimates:
2014/15 world corn production: 1,005 [984–1,014] million tons, 13 million tons above USDA
2014/15 world soybean production: 320 [304–324] million tons, 7 million tons above USDA
2014/15 world wheat production: 715 [709–723] million tons, 7 million tons below USDA
2014/15 world rapeseed production: 70 [69–72] million tons, 2 million tons below USDA
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