Estimates and ranges for today's USDA Report in million acres


CORN
Estimate: 94.8
Range: 93.7–95.7 

BEANS
Estimate: 75.3  
Range: 74.5–76.7

ALL WHEAT
Estimate: 57.7
Range: 56.6–58.3 

WINTER WHEAT
Estimate: 42.0
Range: 41.5–42.6

SPRING WHEAT
Estimate: 13.4
Range: 12.1–14.5

DURUM WHEAT
Estimate: 2.3
Range: 1.5-2.5


A more detailed version is available on www.fintecgroup.com
CBOT futures - Yesterday's main pit players:


Corn pit:
May2: 22,313 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 1,437 contracts


Soybean pit:
May2: 9.902 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 1,537 contracts


Wheat pit:
May2: 1,570 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 4 contracts
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:

-Macquarie, Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry and Russian Prime Minister released their estimates yesterday. For more details please see my tweets from yesterday. 


-Egypt bought 60,000 tons from Argentina at $259.35 a ton and 60,000 tons US SRW at $262.84 a ton.Israel bought 25,000 tons of feed wheat and 35,000 of corn from Black Sea.


-Yesterday in the Chicago market, funds were seen sellers of 2,000 soybean futures, 4,000 of wheat futures and 20,000 corn futures.

CBOT futures - Yesterday's main pit players:


Corn pit:
May2: 22,457 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 4,266 contracts


Soybean pit:
May2: 20,692 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 442 contracts


Wheat pit:
May2: 5,222 contracts
May2-July2 spread: 2,554 contracts
DTN Early Word Grains


BULL
1) Despite recent commercial selling, end users still view old-crop fundamentals as bullish.
2) Soybeans proved again overnight that it's hard to keep a good market down.
3) If the dollar returns to its short-term downtrend wheat could short-term downtrend wheat could recover from Tuesday's collapse.   

BEAR
1) The short-term trend is threatening to turn down in corn.
2) The soybean market is technically overbought again, possibly sparking follow-through selling interest.
3) An increasingly bearish commercial outlook continues to put a lid on rally attempts.


Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer

Macquarie released its estimates for US acreage & stockpiles at 10:30 London time


Corn:
93.5 million acres
Stockpiles 6.4% down versus year ago


Soy:
76 million acres
Stockpiles 11% higher versus year ago


Wheat:
16.1 million acres
Stockpiles 13% down versus year ago
DTN Early Word Grains

BULL
1) The corn market could look to recover some of Monday's sell-off during Tuesday's session.
2) The soybean market looks to have begun its strong seasonal uptrend that tends to last into early July.
3) Support from the other grains and a lower U.S. dollar index could help wheat contract trade higher.  

BEAR
1) Export demand has slowed for U.S. corn supplies.
2) The soybean market is technically overbought again, possibly sparking renewed selling interest.
3) New-crop winter wheat conditions are much better this year, with recent moisture across the growing area leading to ideas of a larger crop.

Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
FOREX - Major Commodity FX Rates


EURUSD: 1.3349 -0.14%
USDCAD; 0.9909 -0.03%
AUDUSD: 1.0534 -0.20%
USDBRL: 1.8172 0.50%
EURCHF: 1.2065 -0.02%
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:


-Weather concerns in EU are now rising especially on Rapeseed, forecast for the next 10 days shows dry weather across Western Europe. Precipitation Outlook for Europe. 

-Quiet export market. Taiwan bought 41,650 tons of US milling wheat. North African countries have done their shopping the past days it seems.

-Yesterday in the Chicago market, funds were seen buyers of 9,000 soybean futures and 4,000 of wheat futures. They were seen active sellers of 10,000 corn futures.
MATIF Market - Most traded option

May 12 Milling Wheat  220.00 call covered against 216.00 delta 41%. 



Volume : 1000 contracts.



Kansas City Board of Trade - HRW Wheat Basis



Ord.    Low 35;  High: 50
11.00%  Low 35;  High: 50
11.20%  Low 55;  High: 70
11.40%  Low 57;  High: 72
11.60%  Low 75;  High: 90
11.80%  Low 80;  High: 95
12.00%  Low 108; High: 123
12.20%  Low 113; High: 125
12.40%  Low 113; High: 128
12.60%  Low 113; High: 128
12.80%  Low 113; High: 128
13.00%  Low 113; High: 128
13.20%  Low 116; High: 131
13.40%  Low 125; High: 140
13.60%  Low 125; High: 140
13.80%  Low 152; High: 167
14.00%  Low 181; High: 196


Note: Basis is calculated over the May2 futures contract.
DTN Early Word Grains


BULL
1) Old-crop corn is expected to see solid commercial buying support Monday.
2) Weekly export inspections are expected to be bullish for soybeans.
3) Wheat could see another bullish weekly export inspection number as well.

BEAR
1) Weekly export inspections may come in bearish for corn.
2) The soybean market is technically overbought again, possibly sparking renewed selling interest.
3) A stronger U.S. dollar index could limit buying enthusiasm in wheat.


Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:


-Bangladesh bought 50,000 tons of wheat at $303.90/ton from Indian company LMJ International. South Africa will export 400,000 tons of corn to Mexico. 


-China to auction 300,000 tons of soybeans and 300,000 of wheat from reserves on March 27th and March 28th. Pakistani Agriculture Storage and Services Corporation has been allowed by government to release 450,000 of wheat for export. Pakistan also allowed more than 100,000 tons of wheat to be imported from India, local papers reported.


-There's a talk now that China grain output numbers may have been overstated according to a Bloomberg article.
FOREX - Major Commodity FX Rates

EURUSD 1.3251 -0.14%
USDCAD 0.9985 -0.03%
AUDUSD 1.0454 -0.20%
USDBRL 1.8102 0.50%
EURCHF 1.2054 -0.02%
DTN Early Word Grains


BULL
1) The May corn contract has rallied off its test of technical support and could extend its gains Friday with support from soybeans. 
2) The ongoing port strike in Argentina could continue to keep export demand interest on U.S. soybean supplies.
3) Spillover support from the other grains combined with the lower U.S. dollar index should help wheat trade higher Friday.


BEAR
1) Commercial buying in corn has slowed recently, as indicated by the action in the May-to-July futures spread.
2) The minor (short-term) trend in soybeans remains down.
3) Export demand for U.S. wheat remains slow.



Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:

-The new theme is now that China is buying feed wheat rather than US corn because of lower wheat prices and for local price control.



-Algeria bought 300,000 tons of milling wheat (optional origin). China bought 350,000 tons of Australian feed wheat. Tunisia tendered for 50,000 tons of wheat and 50,000 tons of barley.


-The Argentine strike is still slowing grain shipments, observers noted this strike is usual at this time of the season and since this origin is not on the spotlight as it was little ago, the impact is quite little.
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:



-Oil World released its estimates for Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Canadian Canola.


-The international tender market is getting more active. Iran bought 120,000 tons of Indian soy meal and is currently looking for 100,000 ton of optional origin corn. Japan is buying 133,792 tons of milling wheat from the US, Canada or Australia through its regular tender scheme. Taiwan bought Ukrainian corn in small quantities and could possibly buy more according to traders. 


-Bloomberg reported the Tokyo Grain Exchange is planning to transfer Grains Futures trading to another exchange.




DTN Early Word Grains

BULL                               
1) The seasonal index for corn remains bullish through mid-June. 
2) The long-term commercial outlook for soybeans is bullish, as indicated by the inverted new-crop futures spreads.
3) Export demand for wheat continues to run ahead of USDA's projection. 

BEAR
1) The corn market posted a bearish short-term technical signal Monday.
2) The short-term trend in soybeans has turned down, meaning additional noncommercial long-liquidation could be seen.
3) Wheat's long-term commercial outlook remains bearish.


Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:



-Algeria tendered for 125,000 tons of wheat and 50,000 tons of barley. Jordan tendered for 100,000 tons of wheat and 100,000 tons of barley. UAE is looking for wheat and barley too.


-Agriculture.com: Japan changed its delivery rules in tenders for US wheat upon experiencing shipments delays.


-Russia may export 25.5-26 million tons of grains according to Rusagotrans. China’s 2012/13 corn imports to be 8.9 MMT according to Shanghai JC.



DTN Early Word Grains


BULL                               
1) The seasonal index for corn indicates an extended uptrend through mid-June.
2) Weekly export inspections are expected to be bullish for soybeans.
3) Weekly export inspections could be bullish again for wheat.        

BEAR
1) Technically the corn market could start to see renewed selling interest.
2) The soybean market remains overbought, technical situation that could lead to renewed selling interest.
3) Wheat's long-term commercial outlook remains bearish.


Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer   
Overnight recap before the MATIF open:


-Interfax said " Russian grain exports may reach 27 million tons" and "Russia won't limit grain export is 2012. 

-Russian paper RBS Daily said CME Group plans to offer trading in Black Sea Grain futures, 

-The CFTC Commitment Of Traders reports was released on Friday. Non-commercial traders are long 287,427 Corn contracts, long 172,756 Soybean contracts and short 41,165 Wheat contracts.

DTN Early Word Grains

BULL
1) The seasonal index for corn indicates an extended uptrend through mid-June.  
2) Demand for U.S. soybeans remains strong.                                     
3) The Chicago wheat market has been able to rally off technical support this week.

BEAR
1) The May corn contract continues to struggle with technical resistance at the 200-day moving average near $6.68 1/4.
2) The soybean market remains overbought, a situation that theoretically could lead to renewed selling interest.
3) The wheat market has seen little fresh export demand news this week.


Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer  
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-US and EU weekly export numbers were released yesterday. EU issued 426,000 of wheat export licenses. The cumulative exports for the 2011/12 season (starting July) is 9.8 million tons down from 14.6 million tons last year.  US export sales numbers available here.


-The international market showed a decent activity yesterday. Iraq bought 300,000 tons  of Canadian wheat, showing how competitive this origin is despite freight costs. South Korea is in the market for 55,000 tons of corn.  


-Yesterday, London-based Gleadell said that Morocco crop may be halved to 4 million tons. 
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-AgroConsult cut its Brazil's 2011/12 crop estimate to 67.1 million tons from 69.9 million tons for soybeans yesterday. 


-FranceAgrimer released its grain estimates yesterday. Talk that the Morocco, a major client for France, may suffer wheat crop losses around 3-4 million tonnes.


-The export market is pretty quiet. Egypt issued a tender for 60,000 tons of milling wheat for May 1-10 shipment. Taiwan bought 60,000 tons of Brazilian soybean. 

DTN Early Word Grains

BULL 

1) The May corn contract is trading above short-term trendline resistance.  
2) The carry in the old-crop May-to-July  soybean futures spread continues to weaken, indicating a more bullish commercial outlook.
3) The Chicago wheat market could continue to hold above minor trendline support.

BEAR
1) The May corn contract could find technical resistance at the 200-day moving average near $6.68 1/2.
2) Technically the soybean market remains short-term bearish.
3) Long-term global supply and demand remains bearish for wheat.




Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer 

FRANCEAGRIMER ESTIMATES:

2011-12 SOFT-WHEAT EXPORTS AT 16.4 MLN TONS - UP

DURUM EXPORTS: 1.45 MLN TONS - UP

CORN EXPORT OUTLOOK: 6.67 MLN TONS - DOWN

CORN STOCKS ESTIMATE: 2.19 MLN TONS - UP

BARLEY EXPORTS: 4.15 MLN TONS - DOWN

BARLEY STOCKS: 1.14 MLN TONS - UP


DTN Early Word Grains
BULL 
1) The May corn contract has moved into a short-term uptrend.                  
2) Demand for U.S. soybean supplies remains strong.     
3) The other grains are expected to pull Chicago wheat higher.

BEAR
1) There are few bearish factors in corn at this time, though a strong U.S. dollar index could limit buying interest.
2) Technically the soybean market remains short-term bearish.
3) Long-term global supply and demand remains bearish for wheat.




Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 


-Chicago corn up yesterday on rumours Argentina may restrict corn exports and China buying more US corn.  

- MGEX wheat up on funds buying HRS. Talks of French crop loss around 1.9MMT (Agritel).

- Quiet international market despite Syria buying 300,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine.


US wheat prices at major shipping points 


Chicago                638.00 
Gulf                      698.00 
Toledo                  650.00 
St. Louis               658.00 
Memphis              648.00
Mt. Vernon, IN   644.00 


DTN Early Word Grains

BULL
1) The inverted May-to-July futures spread shows a bullish commercial outlook in corn.
2) Weekly export inspections are expected to be bullish for soybeans.
3) Wheat could find support in the lower U.S. dollar index.

BEAR
1) Weekly export inspections could be bearish for corn.
2) The soybean market has turned technically bearish.
3) Wheat weekly export inspections are expected to be bearish.





Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
French Cash Market: 

Soft Wheat204
Hard Wheat255
Corn204
Rapeseed469


(in € per ton)
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 


-Alexander Frolov, head of the Russian Federal Hydrometeorology service Roshydromet said to Bloomberg that Russian soil moisture was "sufficient" before spring sowing and winter crops were in better conditions than last year.

-On Friday the CFTC released its "Commitment of Traders" report. Traders increased their long positions in corn and soybean and reducued their short positions in wheat.

-Today is the last trading day for the March 12 expiry on the MATIF milling wheat futures (Euronext/Liffe Paris). The May 12 contract becomes the front-month contract.


World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates - Details

Latest WASDE Report (pdf format) 

Copyright USDA - www.usda.gov

INFORMA FORECASTS:

Acreage:
Corn: 95.513 Million Acres
Soybean: 75.128 Million Acres
Wheat: 57.745 Million Acres

Crop:
Corn: 14.394 Billion Bushels
Soybean: 3.306 Billion Bushels
Wheat: 2.276 Billion Bushels

WASDE US ending stocks - survey : 


Corn: 790 (Survey Low: 608 - Survey High 850)
Soybeans: 260 (Survey Low: 200 - Survey High 301)
Wheat: 840 (Survey Low: 824 - Survey High 935)


(in Million Bushels)

FX Major Commodity Currencies


EURUSD 1.3219 -0.11%
USDCAD 0.9925 -0.25%
AUDUSD 1.0620 -0.25%
USDBRL 1.7607 -0.94%
EURCHF 1.2054 0.07%
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-The international tender market is rather quiet. South Korea's Nonghyup is tendering for 280,000 tons of corn. Japan is tendering for 47,000 tons of wheat and 20,000 tons of barley.

-The USDA attaché in China released its estimates yesterday.  Estimate for Soybean imports is up 5.9% at 59 million tons. Estimate for corn imports is unchanged at 4 million tons.

-US wheat export premiums mostly steady yesterday reportedly. Lack of farmer sales reported too.
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-French port of Rouen weekly wheat exports up to highest level since November on the back of strong demand from North Africa.

-Cereals output may fall from 8.4 million tons to 4 million ton, Morocco agricultural institute said yesterday. No breakdown was published though.

-FAO raised its estimate for wheat output to 700 million tons vs 694.5 million tons previously.


DTN Early World Grains

BULL
1/The May-to-July corn spread is nearing par, reflecting an increasingly bullish commercial outlook
2/The long-term commercial outlook for soybeans is bullish.
3/The winter wheat crop is coming out of dormancy earlier than normal, opening the door for possible crop condition
problems.


BEAR
1/The corn market is pressing toward secondary (intermediate-term)trendline resistance.
2/The soybean market is sharply overbought and poised for a
downside correction.
3/The stronger U.S. dollar index
is expected to put pressure on wheat Wednesday.

Copyright - DTN/The Progressive Farmer
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-Argentina’s top climatologist forecasts 20/21 million tons or corn this season, Mercopress reported.

-Global Tenders: Japan bought 59,000 tons of feed wheat and 96,000 tons of feed barley. Libya bought 65,000 tons of Russian wheat. 
-US CIF corn basis firmer on stronger demand from exporters looking to secure purchases ahead of farmers planting and slower cash market.



Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 
-Iran is in talks with Russia and India to buy of wheat in decent amount.

-A Bloomberg article reported Australian wheat crop may have a 13 to 15% decline from last season since farmers switch to barley and canola. Wheat harvest may drop to 25.7 million tons (versus 29.5 million tons)

-The international tender market is quiet. Japan is tendering for 117,000 tons of milling wheat in its regular tender. A group of private Israeli buyers tendered for 30,000 tons of Corn yesterday. 

FX: Major Commodity Currencies:

EURUSD 1.3189 -0.11%
USDCAD 0.9977 -0.25%
AUDUSD 1.0613 -0.25%
USDBRL 1.7395 -0.94%
EURCHF 1.2059 +0.07%
French Cash Market: 

Soft Wheat209
Hard Wheat256
Corn204
Rapeseed467


(in € per ton)
French Cash Market: 

Soft Wheat207
Hard Wheat256
Corn204
Rapeseed465

Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-Argentine strike at grain ports has blocked 57 vessels. Workers announced the end of strike. Another strike is due on March 19th.

-The Algerian Agriculture Minister said Algeria will have “a good to very good year” on the back of “significant” snow and rain, Bloomberg reported.  This should be bearish for French wheat even though Morocco announced it would import 1 to 1.1 million tons of Soft wheat by the end of May. Government suspended the import duties.

- COFCO, the state-owned grains trading  company, said Chinese rapeseed output for 2011/2012 should be 13/14 million tons. A Reuters article reminds that German analyst Oil World previously predicted output to be 11.6 million in 2011/12.
French Cash Market: 

Soft Wheat206
Hard Wheat256
Corn203
Rapeseed465


(in € per ton)
Overnight recap before the MATIF open: 

-South Korea is currently seeking to buy a total 4 to 7 cargoes of Corn i.e up to 420, 000 tons.  Origin is US or optional. 
-The international tender market is quiet especially in wheat, largest importers being covered after their recent purchases.
-Russian rail carrier Rusagrotrans released its forecast for exports and new crop. 25.5 million tons of grain exports and 95-100 million ton for the new grain crop.




French Cash Market: 

Soft Wheat204
Hard Wheat256
Corn204
Rapeseed463


(in € per ton)